World Cup one-off artifact expired on schedule

A month ago this was the take when the market priced 70% hike odds off a 172K blowout.

That number was just revised to 129K. June printed 57K.

The World Cup ONE-OFF artifact expired, exactly on schedule. Trend now reads 178K → 115K 129K 57K.

The framework didn’t get lucky. It read the composition while the market read the headline.

Same framework, next call: with expectations collapsing, core in line, and policy above the Feds own neutral cuts are the base case now, not the dovish scenario.

Read the data, not the headline.

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