World Cup one-off artifact expired on schedule
A month ago this was the take when the market priced 70% hike odds off a 172K blowout.
That number was just revised to 129K. June printed 57K.
The World Cup ONE-OFF artifact expired, exactly on schedule. Trend now reads 178K → 115K 129K 57K.
The framework didn’t get lucky. It read the composition while the market read the headline.
Same framework, next call: with expectations collapsing, core in line, and policy above the Feds own neutral cuts are the base case now, not the dovish scenario.
Read the data, not the headline.