The World Cup hiring distortion just expired
Three weeks ago the market priced 70% hike odds off a 172K blowout jobs print. That number no longer exists.
May was just revised to 129K. June came in at 57K versus 114K expected.
The blowout was a World Cup hospitality one-off: roughly 70K jobs in leisure against a 14K trend. Strip the distortion and the strength was never there.
The trend now reads 178K → 115K 129K 57K.
The market hiked its expectations on a statistical artifact. The artifact just expired.
Inflation expectations are collapsing. Core is in line. The oil shock cleared. Policy is above the Feds own neutral. Now labor data is confirming the slowdown.
Cuts arent the dovish case anymore. Theyre the base case. Read the data, not the headline.