🚨 The long end is a supply and demand story, not an inflation story.
Supply: record Treasury issuance funding 6% deficits. Demand: the largest foreign holder turning seller as BOJ defends the yen.
Breakevens are anchored. Credit isn’t pricing a new inflation regime. The market repricing here is the price of duration, not the price of goods.
Wall Street keeps reading a flow problem as an inflation problem. Different diagnosis, different trade.
$HOOD held the one number that mattered. 104.42 is the 50 EMA, the .618 and the cloud floor stacked on one line. Closed right there yesterday. Today +5.2% on the tokenized equities pilot. • SEC opened the door to tokenized stocks in the US • Fed hiked and crypto rallied anyway, BTC back over 76k…
Let’s put things in perspective. Thanks @KHerriage Rates never ended that bull market. Demand did. By 2000 the fiber was built years before anyone needed it, and the capex cycle ran out of customers while the 10 year sat near 6%. Today the order is reversed. Customers are
Fed hikes and everything is GREEN. Stock futures up. Bitcoin up. And yields up across the whole curve, 2 year through 30 year, the 10 year through 5%. The market wasn’t afraid of the Fed today. It wanted the UNCERTAINTY gone. The hike was priced, so once it landed there was
“Raising rates will not lower energy prices. It will not create oil, gas, pipelines, refineries, or electricity capacity. And it will not curb government spending.” “This is not inflation fighting. It is punishing the productive private sector while fiscal excess remains untouched.” Well said @dlacalle_IA 🤝
Most people watching the Fed are watching the wrong number. Earnings do not move the overall market; liquidity does. The rate that matters is the real rate: the policy rate minus expected inflation. The Fed sets the first variable. The public sets the second. That means policy can change without a single vote. Hold the…
Rate Hikes Hit the Private Sector. “Raising interest rates will not bring down oil or natural-gas prices, curb government deficits, or reverse the monetary debasement that undermines purchasing power.” @dlacalle_IA is truly a top economist who speaks real economics how I see it. 🤝
