Investing has never been about predicting the future with certainty. At its core, it is about pricing uncertainty, expected value, downside, and probabilities better than the consensus.
Great writeup @FrankDPrestia
THE FUTURE ECONOMY – MAPPED Everyone’s arguing about which stock wins. 8 sectors – the infrastructure the next decade actually runs on PHOTONICS -> light kills copper $CRDO $SIVE $AAOI AI INFRASTRUCTURE -> the compute buildout $IREN ยท $NBIS $DGXX
12 companies built to grow revenue tremendously over the next three years. Not the mega-caps everyone owns. The layers underneath them, across compute, photonics, energy, physical AI and space. Growth rates below. Stay to the end for the part that actually matters: what you pay for it.
Multiples don’t re-rate when the business changes. They re-rate when the market finally rewrites the label. Fifteen names still filed under what they used to be: miner, SPAC, camera chips, satellite hardware. The business moved. The bucket didn’t. The gap between the label and the reality is the setup. RE-RATE WATCHLIST The market is often…
McKinsey, Goldman, PwC and Gartner publish the forecasts. Almost nobody maps them to the layers that must be built first. That’s the part investors can underwrite. 2026 is enterprise scale: roughly $725B of infrastructure spend, with tokens acting like refined electricity. The spend flows through $NVDA, $AVGO and $TSM, then lands on power and land…
The neocloud stack. Three layers, and the market just spent six weeks proving they are not one trade. The cloud layer sells the compute: $NBIS $CRWV $WYFI. Highest growth, highest multiple, and the layer that took the Meta headline directly to the chin. When your customer can become your competitor, the multiple carries that risk….
The AI power value chain, fuel to rack. Five stages, and every one is a bottleneck somebody owns. Fuel comes first. Uranium demand is a decade contract, not a trade. CCJ and BWXT sit at the front of the chain, where the clock is measured in reactors and long-term procurement. Firm generation is the next…
