Welcome to June!
June opens on a split screen.
$SPY and $QQQ GREENnear record highs.
$DIA and $IWM RED.
Oil ripping ~7% on Iran, $VIXY ticking up, $GLD & BITCOIN selling off.
The index level looks calm. Underneath, capital is ROTATING hard – energy bid, small
Monetary regimes change. They always have. 1971 closed the gold window and opened four decades of asset inflation. 1981 looked like the end of the bond market and started a forty year bull run. Both felt like the floor giving out at the time. Many FEAR CHANGE. Change reads as “loss” to most people because…
AI keeps lowering the cost of producing almost everything. A heavily indebted financial system cannot comfortably let that show up as broad deflation. Bitcoin is what sits between those two forces.
$HOOD held the one number that mattered. 104.42 is the 50 EMA, the .618 and the cloud floor stacked on one line. Closed right there yesterday. Today +5.2% on the tokenized equities pilot. • SEC opened the door to tokenized stocks in the US • Fed hiked and crypto rallied anyway, BTC back over 76k…
Let’s put things in perspective. Thanks @KHerriage Rates never ended that bull market. Demand did. By 2000 the fiber was built years before anyone needed it, and the capex cycle ran out of customers while the 10 year sat near 6%. Today the order is reversed. Customers are
Fed hikes and everything is GREEN. Stock futures up. Bitcoin up. And yields up across the whole curve, 2 year through 30 year, the 10 year through 5%. The market wasn’t afraid of the Fed today. It wanted the UNCERTAINTY gone. The hike was priced, so once it landed there was
“Raising rates will not lower energy prices. It will not create oil, gas, pipelines, refineries, or electricity capacity. And it will not curb government spending.” “This is not inflation fighting. It is punishing the productive private sector while fiscal excess remains untouched.” Well said @dlacalle_IA 🤝
