Conviction is the exam on red days
Big red day in semis and related. Perfect day to talk about conviction, because today is the exam.
Here’s the test hiding in every drawdown: if you had conviction at $100, you should have more at $50. Same company, same contracts, same order book, better price. The math gets better while the screen gets worse.
But only if the thesis is intact. Conviction is not refusing to update. It is knowing what would actually falsify the thesis, then having the discipline to act on that information instead of the emotion of the day.
