Bull Markets Feel Like Skill
A rising account balance can quietly rewrite an investors self-image. Good outcomes become evidence of superior judgment, sizing increases, and the bear case gets treated as an obstacle rather than a requirement. That is how a winning streak turns into a larger future mistake.
Markets do not reward confidence by itself. They reward a process that survives uncertainty. The process is to separate the thesis from the result, record why a position was opened, define what would invalidate it, and size it so that being early does not become being forced.
At the top, the market makes investors overestimate themselves. At the bottom, it makes them doubt everything. Both reactions are predictable. Neither tells you whether the underlying business, valuation, liquidity, or macro regime has changed.
The useful question is not whether you feel talented or punished. It is whether the evidence still supports the position and whether your risk budget allows you to wait. Notice when the market is working on your psychology, then return to the thesis.
