What a Warrant Overhang Looks Like in Real Time
$ASST may be showing us exactly what a warrant overhang looks like in real time.
$BTC surged toward $87K.
$ASST hit ~$32 premarket then fell to ~$29.19 intraday.
Why?
The $27 warrants are no longer theoretical.
Outstanding warrants just fell:
26.60M 25.81M
785,555 warrants disappeared.
There are still 25.81M $27 warrants outstanding – nearly $697M of potential exercise capital.
That can create a strange dynamic:
$BTC $ASST → warrants become more valuable → exercise/hedging/supply $ASST rally gets absorbed
But heres the part I think the market may be missing:
$BTC holdings: 25,000 26,355 (+5.4%)
Effective shares: 94.97M 97.00M (+2.1%)
BTC per share actually increased ~3.2%.
In other words, the mechanism potentially suppressing the stock price in the short run is simultaneously increasing the Bitcoin backing each share.
Price friction. Economic accretion.
That distinction matters.
I’m not just watching Oct. 10.
Im watching the warrant count:
25.8M 20M → 12M 5M → 0
If BTC/share keeps rising while that overhang burns off, the interesting question isn’t why $ASST is struggling to hold $32 today.
It’s what $ASST looks like when the supply creating that friction is gone.
