US labor productivity – or output per hour worked at nonfarm businesses – fell at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in Q12023 vs. Q42022, and down 0.8% Y/Y. 5 straight Qs Negative Y/Y productivity growth, the longest since 1948.
🚨 Nobody wanted the 20-year when they brought it back in 2020 and nobody wants it now. Dropping it is just clean up. The part that matters is moving to bills. The Fed just hiked and most of them want to do it again. So Treasury is taking the debt and parking it at the…
The Fed just hiked into a stall. 👀 29K jobs in September. 3 month average ~51K. Unemployment up to 4.2 and they cut 60K out of the prior months. Wages are growing 3%, slowest since 2021. And all 19 of them backed the hike. Most want another one. 🤯 Meanwhile the 10-year hit 5.36. Haven't…
We’re in a new monetary regime. 💸 On one side, a debt system that has to inflate, because the obligations are nominal and a shrinking denominator makes them heavier. On the other, AI technology that has to deflate, because every improvement pushes the cost of making things toward zero. The fiat unit can’t let prices…
The hike as a transfer, in one chart. 🔂 Treasury borrows short and got repriced in full. Large caps termed out at 2021 coupons (2-3%) and earn 5% on cash. The Fed tightened and the $SPX got paid. ✅ The tightening tax went to whoever borrows off prime. The contractor, the landlord, the small business,…
Making policy mistakes IS the Fed policy. Two weeks ago they hiked to stop “second and third order effects.” This morning: wages 3.0%, lowest since May 2021. Payrolls 29K. July revised to a loss. Three-month average 51K. 🤯 The second-order effect they hiked to prevent is wages. Wages were already rolling over. They hiked into…
AI agents aren’t a productivity story. They’re a fraction story. $META $SPCX Productivity is output over input. Every prior technology moved one side. The steam engine raised output. The assembly line cut input. Agents do both in the same quarter: more output per worker, fewer inputs per unit of output. Numerator up, denominator down. That’s…
