Power, Part 2: The Queue Nobody Can Skip

POWER, PART 2. The queue nobody can skip.

Part 1 was who owns the electrons. This is why nobody else can get any.

THE TURBINE

$GEV $SMNEY $MHVYF

Three companies on earth build heavy duty gas turbines. New orders run about three years. GE Vernova has roughly 10 GW of slots left across 2029 and 2030 combined. The backlog is the moat and also the risk, because it’s priced as if every slot converts.

THE TRANSFORMER

$ETN $HUBB $POWL $NVT $HTHIY

Large power transformer lead times now run past 160 weeks, up from about 50 weeks in 2021. No substation energizes without one.

THE INTERCONNECT

$PWR $MTZ

PJM projects that came online in 2025 averaged more than seven years from queue to operating, and most of that wait landed after approval. Getting permission is the easy half.

THE BRIDGE

$BE $CMI $CAT $GNRC

What you burn while you sit in that queue. Gensets and fuel cells are not a power strategy, they’re a rent payment on time.

ALREADY PLUGGED IN

$CEG $VST $TLN

Existing interconnected firm power. The only line on this map that cannot be ordered at any price, which is why it keeps getting bid.

You can buy almost anything in this buildout. You can’t buy your way to the front of the queue.

On the graphic: The Power Stack, Part 2. The queue nobody can skip. Four inputs, one finish line. The chip was never the constraint. GPU order to rack is the fast part, gas turbine orders have about 10 GW of slots left and run about three years, power transformers require 160+ weeks, and the grid interconnect wait is 7+ years, with most of it after approval. Three companies build heavy duty gas turbines; 10 GW of GE Vernova slots remain across 2029 and 2030 combined; 220 GW was applied for in PJM’s next interconnection cycle; and 4+ years of the wait lands after a project is already approved. You can buy almost anything in this buildout. You can’t buy your way to the front of the queue.