SPX 10,000 Is the Conservative Case—and It All Comes Down to One Number
$SPX 10,000 is the conservative case. And the whole thing prices off one number.
Take @DrJStrategy’s model and run it at different 10Y yields, same $440 of 2027 earnings:
3.75% 26.7x ~11,700
4.65% (today) 21.5x ~9,500
6.1% (the dot com era average) 16.4x ~7,200
Same earnings, three different markets. The 10Y picks the number.
That’s why the only fight that matters is the one over the long end. The Fed wants it high and doing its tightening. The Treasury wants it capped. Whoever wins sets the multiple on everything.
10,000 doesn’t need a miracle. It needs the printer to win.
