Winning Streaks Can Teach the Wrong Lesson
A winning streak is emotionally persuasive and analytically dangerous. It encourages investors to confuse a favorable environment with a repeatable skill. The longer the streak, the more tempting it becomes to increase size precisely when humility is most valuable.
A better review asks what actually drove the result: selection, timing, leverage, liquidity, or simply a rising tide. Write down the thesis and the invalidation before the next position, not after the outcome is known.
Markets eventually change character. The goal is not to avoid confidence; it is to keep confidence from becoming an unpriced assumption. Protect the process that can survive a losing trade.
