First Principles
First principles
Howard Marks: you can’t predict, but you can prepare.
Nobody knows the day the tape turns. Not the Fed, not the funds, not the account with the perfect chart. Every year the same people call the bottom, and every year it’s a different person who was right.
So the job was never calling the turn. The job is being there when it happens: solvent, sized right, and impossible to force out. Cash that isn’t spoken for. Positions that can survive being early. No promise the market can call in at the low.
Forecasts are opinions. Structure is a decision. Only one of them survives contact with a bad month.
