The reaction function is the sign
The reaction function is the sign. You hold in June, then one soft core print talks you into a hike? That is not a framework. That is a coin flip.
Core is 2.6% and falling. Breakevens are below 2, so the market is pricing an undershoot of the Fed target. Payrolls came in at 57K with people leaving the labor force. Policy is already about 60 bps above the Fed neutral, and it gets tighter every week expectations fall without anyone voting on it.
Supply shocks are one-time price moves. June showed it. Gas cleared and the whole surge gave back 0.4% in a month. Supply shocks are not inflation.
Hiking into this is not discipline. Cuts are still the base case. Read the data, not the headline.